Part of a good money management strategy is to divide trades into low, medium and high confidence.  The amount of confidence I have in a trade will dictate how much money will be placed.  A high confidence trade will warrant a bigger slice of my betting bank than a medium or low confidence trade.

Investigating premiership match trends has revealed that Leicester City will produce more high confidence trades when it comes to trading the draw on Betfair. Time of first goal and goals stats highlight Leicester’s matches as high confidence. Here is why.

On average Leicester score the first goal of the match after 22 minutes at home and 27 minutes away. In fact Leicester have scored after the 27th minute in 5 of the last 5 away games played.  What’s more they have scored just 1 goal in the last 5 away games.  Home games do tend to produce more goals, 2.5 on average.

Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion  

Saturday 1st November, 15.00.

We know the average time of first goal is 22 minutes at home for Leicester.  West Bromwich Albion normally score after a massive 40 minutes when they play away.  The other stats indicated that the match will probably result in a win for Leicester but that doesn’t matter because the trade will start within the first 0 to 5 minutes of the match and finish 10 to 15 minutes later.

Exactly when a trade is entered and exited is up to the trader.  Personally I would back the draw at kick off and lay the trade to exit after 10 to 15 minutes: depending on how the game progresses.

The next away game is;

Southampton v Leicester Ciy 

8th November at 15.00

At home Southampton have a time of first goal of 28 minutes, whereas Leicester City is 27 minutes.  Possession stats are very similar for both teams, which may indicate that a draw could be likely, however, Southampton score many more goals than Leicester on average.  It’s likely that Southampton will win the match, however, a trade on the draw if it is exited within 2o minutes is a high confidence trade.

For more updates on good matches to trade please bookmark this blog using control key and the letter D on your keyboard. More details regarding money management can be found on the site, and the next post will contain a more detailed description of how the draw on football matches can be traded on Betfair.

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