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Archive | Bet Trading

Providing information to aid trading bets on Betfair. Techniques explained include scalping on Betfair and swing trading.

Match draw tip. Leeds vs Hull

Leeds v Hull

Championship, Sat 3pm

Match report – Chris Wood scored the first goal for Leeds Utd in the 30th minute. Followed by two more, one by Tom Adeyemi for Leeds after 45 minutes, and, Ahmed Elmohamady scored for Hull in the 51st minute. So, there was not an under 2.5 goals result, but, that would not have mattered if the draw and under 2.5 markets where traded on Betfair within the first 20 minutes. Read on for the pre match analysis.

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 14 out of 18 Hull games this season (79%)
Hull’s last 7 Championship Away games have been Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 out of 7 Championship games since Steve Evans took over as Leeds manager
Hull are the top-rated Under 2.5 Goals team in the Championship while 3 of Leeds’ last 4 games have ended 1-0, win or lose. A low-scoring game is on the cards…

Suggested trades. Back the draw and under 2.5 goal market from the start. Exit both trades sometime in the first 15 – 20 minutes of the match.

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Strong trends in European football we can used for Betfair trading

Neil has just written about the over 2.5 goal market on the blog. With a quarter of the season past in the European leagues the sample size is big enough to give us some data that can be used for trading. So who is hot in the European Leagues?

Interestingly there are 11 teams with a strike rate of 85% or more of their games producing over 2.5 goals per game. Here is the list of teams playing at home in English, European and USA top tier leagues.

  • Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Sevilla (La Liga) – 100%
  • Colombus Crew SC (MLS Eastern) – 88.9%
  • Chesterfield (League One) – 87.5%
  • York City (League two) – 87.5%
  • Cagliari (Serie B) – 85.7%
  • Forfar Athletic (Scottish League One) – 85.7%
  • Freiburg (2. Bundesliga) – 85.7%
  • Rangers (Scottish Championship) – 85.7%
  • PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie) – 85.7%

Here is a list for away games.

  • Espanyol (La Liga) – 100%
  • PAOK FC (Superleague Greece) – 100%
  • Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) – 100%
  • Scunthorpe (League One) – 100%
  • Stuttgart (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Colchester (League One) – 87.5%
  • Crawley Town (League Two) – 87.5%
  • Dagenham and Redbridge (League Two) – 87.5%
  • KVC Westerlo (Belgian Pro League) – 87.5%
  • Helsingborgs IF (Allsvenskan) – 86.7%
  • Nurnberg (2.Bundesliga) – 85.7%
  • PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) – 85.7%
  • St Johnstone (Scottish Premiership) – 85.7%
  • Zulte Waragem (Belgian Pro League) – 85.7%
  • There are lots of ways this information can be used for trading. First thing that comes to mind is making strategic bets in the correct score market when any team in the top list is playing a team in the bottom list. Lay bets could include laying 0-0, 1 – 0 and 0 – 1 score lines. Perhaps making a back bet for score lines like 3 – 1, 1 – 2, or 2 – 1. Use average goals scored home and away data (available on stats websites) to choose which goal number to use for each team.

    Using Betfair software you can close out the trade before the end of the match when the odds move in your favour rather than letting the bets run to the finish. Some traders make large bets in the pre-start market and close them out as early as possible (possibly before the match has started) hoping to benefit from small movements in the odds.

    This information could be used for selecting matches for lay the draw trading. Choose any team from the top or bottom list against an opponent that has a high goals conceded figure or high corners conceded figure for the corresponding home or away games.

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Betfair trading strategy using the help of a hot shot to select the best matches to trade

Betting stats are critical when it comes to choosing which matches to trade on Betfair.  No one has a crystals ball when it comes to predicting sport, but, following team statistical and watching form certainly helps tip the balance in the favour of a Betfair trader.

What is it that needs to go into the mixer for successful bet trading?

Match selection for a draw trading strategy on Betfair

Match selection using goals for and against stats, corner stats and goal scorer stats.  For instance, Jamie Vardy has been a prolific shot taker at Leicester City so far.  Currently top scorer in the Barclays Premier League with 9 goals.  Apart from being a good anytime goals scorer bet, Vardy, can help traders.  With Vardy’s goal scoring prowess Leicester City matched against the right opponents make excellent ‘lay the draw’ trading opportunities.
By checking Leicester City’s fixtures Betfair traders should find some interesting opportunities when playing the right opponents.  The right opponents should have the following characteristics; to be further down the league than Leicester,  to have conceded more goals on average than Leicester.  Features like these affect the dynamics of how the odds will move during the match.  To secure a profit a trader needs the odds for the draw to move higher than the entry odds (lay low and back high).  If the opposing team concede a goal first the market will expect that Leicester will win  and the odds should swing higher than the entry odds no matter how much time has passed.

Exit strategy

Equally important, a good exit strategy will reduce loosing trades and the amount of losses.  Using the example above.  As time passes with no goal being scored the odds of a draw will drop. How fast this happens depends on the game itself.  If you have someone like Vardy playing well and looking for goal opportunities the odds may take longer to drop (expectation of a goal is enough to stop the odds dropping).  The question is how long should you wait for a goal to be scored?  You can base this on time or on how much loss you have made.  Personally I prefer exiting a trade when the loss hits a preset amount.  Exiting after a set period of time would exclude opportunities to profit from the trade.

Time of first goal
The time of first goal statistic is useful for knowing when to enter a trade. If the average first goal time for a team is after 30 minutes then a trader may want to avoid trading for the fist 15 minutes. This avoids the odds dropping too far.

Put simply, successful trading requires knowing when to enter a trade and how to exit.  Let’sCompareBets has investigated the best Betfair strategies here, and it’s free.  Betfair software is critical for trading.  Some offer stop loss features automatically exiting your trade, so that your emotions do not play a part, helping you keep control over your trading.  Find reviews of the best names in bet trading software here.

 

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