Wimbledon has been full of surprises so far.  Most notably was Rafal Nadal being dumped out by Lukas Rosol ranked 100.  Rafal Nadal is never worth punting or trading on grass courts especially Wimbledon, his specialty is clay courts like those at Roland Garos.   Watching Roger Federer play Julian Benneteau made me think of a Betfair tennis trading strategy that works well.

Benneteau is ranked in the thirties.  Federer won the 5 set epic; 4-6, 6-7, 6-2, 7-6, 6-1.

As the score shows Federer went two sets down early on against the Frenchman.  Now Federer has been on good form recently after recovering from injury.  The game got me itching for access to Betfair to get a trade on.  It’s the favourite goes a set down against a much lower ranked underdog trading strategy.  On average the favourite comes back to level the sets 9 out of 10 times.

Federer’s odds increased after going a set down and widened further as he went two sets down.  Backing the favourite at increased odds produces a nice green screen as the odds shorten when the favourite starts to come back to level.  That’s it.  Simple.  A high confidence trade.  Back high when there is a good chance odds will shorten allowing the trade to be excited later at lower odds.

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