One key principle of trading on Betfair is to protect your betting bank.  Nobody wants to lose money right?  Who wants that stress.  An example of a stressful trade is when the unexpected occurs.

When trading the draw it is a misconception matches to trade are selected based on the fact that it is expect that a goal will be scored.  A stressful trade can occur when the underdog scores first or a goal takes a long time to happen.  Very frustrating.

Traders need matches with a strong chance of the favourite scoring first and that the goal will happen within the first 27 minutes approximately.

What are the features of the best match for a lay the draw strategy?

  • A clear favourite.
  • Where the trader has done his / her own research.  Check the stats including goals for and against, corners, as well as recent form.  Are the players fit?
  • A favourite with strong defense helps to reduce the chance of the underdog scoring first.  Stats that show if a team has strong defense include goals conceded and corner conceded stats.
  • Check time of first goal for the team.  Choose teams with a trend of scoring early.

How to filter matches?

A filter could start with the top best teams by goal difference matched against the bottom teams.  Matches between teams who score the most and concede the least against teams that concede the most goals and score the least.

Factors that can affect the chances of the favourite scoring first include change of manager, key players injured, and recent form.

Other matches that are good to trade include teams that are evenly matched.  For instance a match between teams with high goal difference. If both teams are equally likely to win then a goal by either side will cause the draw odds to lengthen giving a profitable trade.