Here at Let’s Compare Bet we like to explore betting types, strategies and delve further into Bet Trading. Some of our, shall we call them, experiments have not been entirely successful. Such as the series that was run on the main blog, titled the big football goal betting experiment. The person running the goal betting experiment, called ‘the professor’ by our editor, was in charge of running the show. It’s fair to say that his efforts produced a lot of winning bets. Unfortunately due to one or two complete blunders the whole thing hit a brick wall. The trouble with 0 – 0 scorelines is that they are quite unlikely. So, to bet that it won’t happen means accepting some pretty big odds. When a loosing bet rears it’s ugly head all those small profit are wiped out. So, this foray into betting strategies didn’t work for our investigator, The Professor, but it may have worked for others. After all it was only an experiment and highlighted some important things that apply to most types of trading.
We asked the professor what two points he would take from the goal betting experiment which apply to swing trading on Betfair. The reply was “don’t make betting decisions after you’ve been drinking ” which seems quite obvious so we’ve scrapped that one. The serious answer was that a trader needs to control their emotions. For example, not making too many bets due to boredom or greed. The second response was that a trader needs a plan and must stick to the plan. The Professor strayed from the plan which led to some of the disastrous results.
From that failed experiment came a desire to investigate trading strategies on Betfair. The idea is that the process is more controlled and that the bet is traded rather than placed. Swing trading is a profitable Betfair trading technique so it came to be one of the first things covered on the Trading and Investing section.
Before we look at how the predictions that where made here last time have fared here’s a summary of what’s important about this swing trading strategy.
- Select games from a football league from which you have access to good statistics. Shots for and against, goal difference, some kind of indicator of home team advantage, and, recent form.
- Keep it simple. Always keep it simple.
- Trade out for a profit at the earliest convenient time.
- Be careful with selection. Choose matches that have a clear favourite, that are playing at home preferably, with the other side likely to concede lots of goals. These matches produce the most profitable swings in betting odds on Betfair.
- If the sides are evenly matched: trade out for a profit after the first goal is scored. It won’t necessarily produce a profit and may cause a small loss, but, it’s better than the other team scoring a goal which will swing the odds in a unprofitable direction.
How did the last Bet Trading tips fare?
Match selection is a very important aspect of trading football matches on Betfair. Our researcher and trader has been making careful selections for swing trading the draw. Three selections where made last time, one from the Scottish Premier League and two from the the Champions League. Here they are followed by the result.
- Bayern Munich Vs Manchester Ciy, Tuesday 27th September, 0 – 2.
- Manchester United Vs Basle, Tuesday 27th September, 3 – 3.
- Rangers Vs Kilmarnock, Tuesday 27th September, 2 – 0.
Plenty of goals. Both the Champions league games where played by reasonably well matched teams. Surprises came from the fact that Bayern Munich scored no goals, and, Man U and Basle scored three each. Basle did enter their match with very good recent form which could explain the high goal number.
Timing a bet trade
The three matches above where selected because they where very likely to produce goals, which they did, but, the timing of entering and exiting the trade remains a very important aspect of making profitable swing trades.
Football odds change as the game progresses. Each match is different and the odds move depending on who is the favourite and when the goals are scored. For instance, when Man United scored the first goal against Basle the odds on the draw didn’t move much higher because Basle where likely to score another. The trader needs to decide whether to close the trade here for a reasonable profit or wait for more goals. On this occasion waiting would have paid off because Manchester United scored another goal making it 2 – 0. This would have been the optimum time to trade out for a profit. The alternative approach would be to wait to see what happens in the rest of the match.
This would not have been a good approach because Basle where on good form and scored three times to give a 3 – 3 scoreline at the final whistle. Against good opponents like Basle it’s fair to say that the best time to trade out would have been after the first or second goal. Traders don’t have to be a expert on Swiss football to make this call (Basle are a Swiss team), all that is needed is access to some football stats and a pre match preview.
The only game with a clear favourite and underdog was Rangers Vs Kilmarnock where the favourites won 2 – 0. With such a clear favourite it would have been reasonable for the trader to wait to see if Rangers scored a second goal. The second goal made the odds even higher resulting in a bigger profit.
To get the latest Betfair bet trading advice subscribe to get posts hot of the press by using the links top right or make Trading and Investing a favourite page (press Control D). Go to the original post to access information about this swing trading method, Betfair as a trading platform and the best trading software to use.