Equal on points Manchester City stand shoulder to shoulder with Man United at the top of the Premier League.  Well almost. Man City have pipped Manchester United at the top of the table in an exciting ending to the Premiership based on goal difference.    To a trader it doesn’t matter who wins… as far as trading in concerned.  Both teams will play the final games in the Premiership like they are fighting for the title.   Manchester United play Sunderland away and Manchester City play Queens Park Rangers at home.

Why do these games look interesting from a bet trading perspective?

Both teams really need a win for starters.  They will be playing hard and allowing a draw just won’t be on the agenda.  Man United need to win with a good goal difference to stand a chance of winning the Premiership title and Man City play at home where they have a considerable home team advantage.

Both games look good for lay the draw trading.  Here are the stats.

Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers (QPR)

Sunday 13 May 3pm

This table shows goal stats.

2.9 Average for 0.9
0.6 Average against 2.1
22.2% Under 2.5 44.4%
77.8% Over 2.5 55.6%

Man City score an average of 2.9 goals per game whereas Queens Park Rangers concede an average of 2.1.  Man City are the clear favourites and are expected to score first.  QPR have also lost their last 5 games in the Premiership, so recent form is not looking good.

Bet trading recommendation

Lay the draw within the first 5 minutes of the game.  Wait for Man City to score and trade out for a profit using bet trading software.  If the unexpected happens and QPR score first follow the trading decision tree.

Betfair odds show how strongly Man City have been backed in this game.  Currently Man City win odds stand at 1.16, returning just 16 pence per pound.  Draw odds stand at 10 back and 11 lay which indicated that a draw is most unlikely.  If neither team score in the first half there is lots of room for the odds to shorten, which will cause the trade to have a negative value….temporarily as long as either team scores.

Sunderland vs Man United

Sunday 13 May 3pm

Man United are obviously the favourites in this match, but, the stats do not suggest they are as strongly backed as Man City.  Man U score more goals on average than Sunderland, but both teams concede less than one goal per game.  Man United play Sunderland at home in this game but they will still be playing all out football in this game.

Bet trading recommendation

Lay the draw within the first 5 to 10 minutes of the match or before kick off.  Man United are expected to score first as they are favourites.  If Man United score trade out for a profit using bet trading software.  If the underdog scores use the decision tree.

Betfair odds for the draw currently stand at 4.8 back and 4.9 lay indicating that the market believes that a draw is much more likely in this game than with Man City vs QPR.

Over 2.5 goal trading

The odds for ‘over 2.5 goals’ are as low as 1. 35 in the Man City vs QPR match.  There is good scope for these to lengthen nicely if no goals are scored in the first 15 minutes of the game.  Although Man City are likely to start this game with strong attacking play.  Even though the odds are very short and could lengthen rapidly if no goals are scored in the first quarter of the game the chance that Man City will score may just be too high.

Trading the ‘over 2.5 goal’ market for Sunderland Vs Manchester United may be a better option.  Even though Man United are looking for a high goal difference both teams do not concede many goals and Sunderland play at home. Betfair odds for over 2.5 goals are currently 1.75, which is still quite short.  Consider laying over 2.5 goals and trading out for a profit during the first 15 minutes of the game after the odds lengthen.  Perhaps watch the opened two minutes of the game to see if goals are likely early on.  If play is ferocious and attacking avoid laying this market.

In the recent game of Liverpool vs Chelsea odds in the ‘Over 2.5 goal’ market went from 1.81 to 1.91 in under 5 minutes.  That’s more than a 5% gain in the first 5 minutes of the game.  Nice.

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