Archive | Scalping on Betfair

Tips and advice on how to scalp trades on Betfair

Best matches for trading the draw

One key principle of trading on Betfair is to protect your betting bank.  Nobody wants to lose money right?  Who wants that stress.  An example of a stressful trade is when the unexpected occurs.

When trading the draw it is a misconception matches to trade are selected based on the fact that it is expect that a goal will be scored.  A stressful trade can occur when the underdog scores first or a goal takes a long time to happen.  Very frustrating.

Traders need matches with a strong chance of the favourite scoring first and that the goal will happen within the first 27 minutes approximately.

What are the features of the best match for a lay the draw strategy?

  • A clear favourite.
  • Where the trader has done his / her own research.  Check the stats including goals for and against, corners, as well as recent form.  Are the players fit?
  • A favourite with strong defense helps to reduce the chance of the underdog scoring first.  Stats that show if a team has strong defense include goals conceded and corner conceded stats.
  • Check time of first goal for the team.  Choose teams with a trend of scoring early.

How to filter matches?

A filter could start with the top best teams by goal difference matched against the bottom teams.  Matches between teams who score the most and concede the least against teams that concede the most goals and score the least.

Factors that can affect the chances of the favourite scoring first include change of manager, key players injured, and recent form.

Other matches that are good to trade include teams that are evenly matched.  For instance a match between teams with high goal difference. If both teams are equally likely to win then a goal by either side will cause the draw odds to lengthen giving a profitable trade.

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Premiership season’s best team for ‘in play’ trading

Profitable Betfair trading strategies are closely guarded secrets by professional bet traders.  Secrets have to be paid for, normally.   At Let’s Compare Bets we suggest using football stats in combination with winning Betfair trading strategies.  Match selection is almost as important as the Betfair trading strategy being used.

In the 2010 – 2011 Premiership season there was one team that was very good for trading on the fly (or in play trading).  The past is can sometimes be used as a guide to the future so this technique could we be used next season.  Chelsea where very good at coming back fighting if they conceded the first goal.  After conceded the first goal they came back to win over 35% of the time.

Why is this good for bet trading?

Most of the time Chelsea are the favourites in the games they play.  If the underdog scored first markets always expect the favourite to come back fighting and expect goals.  The odds move in a predictable way.  For instance, Chelsea win odds would increase.  After they increase a back bet can be placed with an expectation that the Chelsea will score a goal.  As they start attacking play the odds should decrease which moves the odds lower (in a profitable direction).  Trades can be closed for a profit even if the favourite does score because during the first few minutes after the underdog scores it’s all about expectation that Chelsea will score.

Draw odds also react in a predictable manner. When the underdog scores the odds will increase.  Back the draw and higher odds and wait for the odds to shorten when the favourites start attacking.

Both trading techniques should only be used over a short time frame. Otherwise it’s just betting.  This is really a scalping strategy that looks to make small gains rather than one large gain.  If the trade is left open too long the risk is that the underdog scores again which will cause a loss.  Scalping normally rely on making lots of small gains from small movements in the odds.

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A quick guide to one tick scalping on Betfair using a real life example

Scalping betting odds on sports is a type of bet trading that involves the trader making small and regular profits from tiny movements in the odds quoted for bets. Scalpers will know that the best place to scalp bets is Betfair. Scalping on Betfair is made possible by third party software providers like Bet Traders. Bet trading software makes one click betting and hedging possible. Any readers who have stumbled open this post and are unaware of Betfair should read our post explaining Betfair.  Scalping like most types of trading is more of an art than a science and needs explanation and guidance.

In the video below, courtesy of a trader called The Badger, there is an example of scalping UK horse racing markets on Betfair. The Badger uses software from Racing Traders called Bet Trader Pro to make the trades.  More on the Bet Trader software later.

Those who need more explanation about scalping should read this section.  Anyone else should go straight to the video to get a real life example of a trader scalping a horse race on Betfair.   Here is the main theory of scalping,

  • Small profits are made from the difference between back and lay odds on the same selection (same horse in this example).  Always back high (higher odds) and lay low (lower odds).  It doesn’t matter which bet gets placed first.
  • Use software to make the second bet which completes the trade.  The software has a hedging function which works out what stakes need to go down in order to complete the trade and guarantee a profit.  A hedge essentially places bets across all the other selections (in this case horses in the race).
  • Make more winning trades than loosing ones and you have a profit.  Use money management and stop loss techniques to achieve this goal.

Uk horse racing is a popular market to scalp on Betfair because it attracts lots of money, especially in the first 10 minutes before the race.  Scalping relies on liquidity (lots of money entering the betting market).

an example of scalping with bet trading software

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