How likely are draws in the EPL? Getting answer to this question could really help traders using a draw betting strategy. Did you know that nearly 1 in 3 Premier League matches are no goal draws at the end of the first half. To be precise 29% of games are goal less draws after 45 minutes (+ 2 minutes average stoppage time). This is the average over the last 3 Premier League seasons.
Take a look at this graph.
The chance of a draw at half time is on the vertical axis and time is along the bottom.
As traders it’s good to know how likely a draw is during the first few minutes of a match. Across all clubs the chance of a draw at half time increases slowly until the 33rd minute.
Goals in the first 34 minutes are relatively likely to happen. Time of first goal markets normally have their marker after 27 minutes. In view of this match selection could not be more important when choosing games that are likely to be a draw for the first 10 – 15 minutes.
After the first 34 minutes the chances of a match ending the first half with no goals increases significantly. Only 22% of first goals scored in the opening half happen from the 34th minute.
Comparing the first half to the second half is also worth doing. In the first 45 minutes of a game a massive 77.7% of the goals come from the first half. If the match is a draw at the end of the first half it is more likely to remain a draw during the second half, because the chance of the a goal is less likely.
How is this useful to Betfair traders?
Any match that remains a no goal draw after 34 minutes is a better candidate for a back the draw trade.
Any match that is a draw at half time is a good back the draw opportunity. Avoid the opening 10 minutes of the second half because players come on to the pitch rejuvenated and more likely to score.
Traders should do their own research as with any match and choose matches that generally look good as far as draws are concerned. Techniques for choosing the correct matches can be found through our Betfair strategies page.
After finding a good match to trade, a back / lay the trader trade would be made in the first 10 minutes, in the last 11 minutes of the first half, and between the 55 and 70th minutes of the second half: as long as the match is a draw before making the trade.