Saturday 14th July 23:00 GMT Arena Amazonia, Manaus

England vs Italy showing on the BBC

Group D

England’s first competitive game at the World Cup playing Italy looks interesting from a betting point of view.  First group games rarely set the world alight in terms of performances.  How many memorable first group stage match performances can you think of?

England vs Italy is an opportunity to trade the under 2.5 goal market.

  • 8 out of 10 of England’s goals have been scored in the 2nd half.  That’s 80%!
  • Time of First Goal.  The first goal has been scored after the 27th Minute in 5 out of the last 6 games.
  • Italy also score after the 27th minute most of the time
  • Italy defend very well
  • England can defend well

Italy will be man marking the likes of Rooney, Sturridge (if he’s playing), and Gerrard.  A note about Sturridge, he’s scorred 21 Premier League goals in the season past and 4 times in the past 7 international (all be it friendly appearances), but there are rumours he will be left out of the team playing Italy.  If he is that’s great for under 2.5 goal and match draw trading.

When can a trade be made?

Between zero to Twenty Seven minutes the stats tell us that there are unlikely to be any goals.

How will the odds react?

As the game progresses without goals the odds for the Under 2.5 goal market will decrease.  The odds for the match draw market will also decrease.  Without goals a low scoring match finish and a 0 – 0 draw become more likely, and the odds shorten.

How to trade the match

Back under 2.5 goals at the beginning of the match.  As the odds shorten lay the bet off for a guaranteed profit.  There’s no need to do this manually just use a Betfair trading software package.