(All games 8pm kick off unless otherwise stated…)
|Tuesday 20th December|
|Blackburn v Bolton||live on Sky Sports 1|
|Wednesday 21st December|
|Man City v Stoke||7.45pm|
|Fulham v Man Utd|
|Wigan v Liverpool||live on Sky Sports 1|
In date order, Blackburn have not kept a clean sheet all season. Both Blackburn and Bolton score lots of goals in their Premiership matches. The teams are evenly matched. This goes slightly against our original football trading strategy (which prefers a clear favourite), but, with so many goals expected it could be worth trading.
Man City v Stoke present a more high confidence trade. Referring to the original strategy linked to above, there is a clear favourite in this match. Manchester City have got a massive home team advantage at the moment having won all 8 of their home games. Man City score over 2 goals per game and concede over a third less than stoke. One word of caution is that Stoke comes into the game after an impressive winning streak of 4 games against some strong teams, viz, Tottenham and Eveton. A positive point is that this could cause the odds to be a bit shorter which means less money is required to trade.
Man United have not conceded a goal in the last 5 Premiership games. Having won them all. Man United also dominate Fulham with an strong away team advantage.
Liverpool are looking very strong with 81% of their games going over 10.5 corners. They play Wigan with a strong away team advantage. Wigan tend to concede more goals than Liverpool and Liverpool score more goals than Wigan.
Man City v Stoke, Man United v Fulham, and Wigan Athletic v Liverpool, all look like the best matches to trade. The simple rules from this football trading strategy is to lay the draw wait for the favourite to score the first goal, then close the trade for a profit. If the underdog scores first assess the change in odds, check to see if there is a loss and decide whether to close straight away. This may produce a loss. Alternatively leave the trade run. As time passes without any more goals the chance of a draw decreases and the odds should move toward or into profitable territory. Introduce a time limit to reduce the chance of the favourite scoring in roughly the last third of the game, which would make a draw almost certain (which would cause a nasty dent to the betting bank).
If any readers who have not traded football games on Betfair before and want to give it a try a Betfair account is needed and Betfair software like Bet Trader, which is free. Don’t worry about the trading tips given here, there will be more. Subscribe to these using the link to the top right.