Learn how to get useful information for selecting which football games to trade on Betfair using tools freely available on the internet using the Fink Tank rankings system. Finktank prediction takes the following factors into account, recent defensive and attacking form, goal difference, and various determinants of performance. The formulas and mathematical wizardry produce team rankings. Using the rankings the Fintank predictor produces percentage chances of Home win, Away win and draw.
Fink Tank predictions are useful for selecting games to trade and deciding how much betting bank to risk. Let’s take a hypothetical situation, Man United V QPR. In fact Man United play QPR at home tomorrow.
The predictions for this match are,
Draw percentage chance 13%
Expected goal difference 2.07
No surprise that the draw is so unlikely when the expected goal difference is 2.07. Readers who have followed our posts on Betfair trading will know that match selection is pivotal to successful bet trading. This match doesn’t look likely to end in a draw.
If the same match was played 10 times chances are there would be one draw. Statistically it is better to consider this over 100 games rather than just 10, because, due to random chance there could be no draws or there could be 5 draws, and none for the next 60 games.
So, over 100 matches there may be, say, 13 draws (based on a 13% chance of a draw). This is a unusually low chance of a draw, because it is Man United playing at home, and they almost always win at home.
Assuming the Man United v QPR match draw odds are high, let’s say 8, lets look at what would happen if we lay the draw result in every game for 100 matches and did not trade at all. In this example the lay stake is 10GBP. At odds of 8 that is a risk of 70 GBP per bet.
87 non draws of 10 GBP = 870 GBP.
13 draws loosing 70 GBP each time = 910 GBP.
Total = 40 GBP loss.
How can the trader change the balance of probabilities in their favour?
Two methods can be used to do this. First, is to actually trade the game. Each trade should be excited as soon as their is a profitable opportunity. Losses should be cut ASAP if the game doesn’t go as expected.
Second is to manipulate the odds where the trade is opened. The trader may decided to trade matches only if the draw chance is less than 20%. Each trade open ‘in play’ after draw odds have reduced (which they do if no goals are scored). For instance, if you entered each trade at odds that are 0.2 lower that the in the above example, the loss is reduced to 14 GBP. Reduce the opening odds by 0.4 and the overall result would be a profit of 12 GBP (over 100 matches). Take into account margins of error and on average a trader should break even over 100 matches.
A break even position is good. One of the fundamental aspects of Betfair trading is to conserve the betting bank, which this achieves. Factor in exit strategies and loss prevention techniques and trading draw results on football can be very profitable.
What about money management?
If by random chance, there where too many draw matches in close succession, 13 losses could potentially wipe out a betting bank. A money management strategy should be used to stop this from happening. A very conservative strategy would be to ensure there where enough funds to absorb losses if 13 draws happened in a row (with no loss reduction techniques being used). That would need a betting bank of 910 GBP if each trade was entered at odds of no more than 8; 884 GBP with odds of no more than 7.8; or 858 GBP with odds of no more than 7.6. This money management technique works if the trader controls the odds at which they enter each trade.
In summary Fink Tank is a quick way to get information about goal difference and draw percentage chances. Incorporate this information into match selection systems, use the best exit strategies, and money management and bet trading the draw on Betfair is profitable.