Monday’s game between Liverpool and Tottenham looks like a good candidate for Betfair trading. The previous post about Premiership trading tips explains various methods for trading football games on Betfair. For a refresher visitors may also like to read that post.
The game kicks off on Monday at 8pm (Feb 8th). A swing trade on the draw market and over 2.5 goal market look like good opportunities.
Why does this game look good for a swing trade on the Draw?
Using statistics like goals scored and conceded both teams look evenly matched. Liverpool score 1.64 goals per games and Tottenham score 1.88 goals per game. Liverpool concede 0.86 and Tottenham concede 0.94 goals per game. Liverpool start the game as favourites but Tottenham have a slight away team advantage.
Trading Advice. Lay the draw and wait for the odds to lengthen after the first goal before ‘greening up’ for a profit. The odds should increase sufficiently enough to produce a profit because both teams are evenly matched. Expect the odds to increase more if Liverpool score first. Be prepared that the draw odds might not increase very much if Tottenham score first because they are underdogs, but, this effect should be limited because there is not a very big difference between the win odds for both teams. After the fist goal hedge the trade for a profit as soon as possible.
What about trading the ‘over 2.5 goals’ market?
Currently the odds in the over / under goals market indicate that under 2.5 goals is more likely, with odds at around 1.88 on Betfair (open an account if you don’t have one). This has dragged the odds for ‘over 2.5 goals’ down to just over evens which looks too low for the liklihood of getting more than 2.5 goals.
As such, if the game does not produce any goals early on the odds for ‘over 2.5 goal’s should increase significantly as the chance of this outcome decreases.
Trading advice. Lay the ‘over 2.5 goal market’ and green up for a profit after the odds increase when goals are not scored as quickly as expected. A trader can have high confidence in this trade because both teams concede so few goals and look evenly matched. If a goal is scored quickly the trader can either wait for the odds to increase (as long as another isn’t scored), in which case the trade can be exited for a small loss or the trader can wait for it to become profitable. This depends on the percentage of the betting bank being used. A trader should exit as early as possible if a large proportion of the betting bank is being used.
Alternatively a saver bet could be placed to reduce losses. A good saver bet would be to use the total goals market. When a goal is scored early the odds in the total goals market decrease. Even the odds for a massively unlikely result like 7 or more goals decreases. A lay bet can be placed on 7 or more goals just after the odds decrease in order to reduce losses on the’ over 2.5 goal’ trade if there is a second goal is scored.
If all this sound complicated don’t worry, these techniques are explained in the previous post on other posts in the swing trading section (it is suggested the readers look at the first post in this section for more information on these Betfair trading techniques).
Still not confident? Never fear, Let’s Compare Bets recommends Bet Trader by Racing Traders as the software of choice for trading football on Betfair. Bet Trader is easy to use, it has a free version which is good enough for trading (initially), and it has a trading mode for traders to try out this advice without using real money. Traders will soon look to upgrade to get the speed needed to execute trades more quickly making it easier to secure profits.
An interesting arbitrage betting opportunity has also been revealed on the blog with some betting stats behind the match between Liverpool Vs Tottenham.