The Barclays Premiership is giving us good trading opportunities this weekend. As a trader we want matches backed up by goal, corner and possessions stats that will direct us to make high confidence trades. As a Betfair trader I would like to tip the balance of probabilities so that I get more winning trades than loosing trades.
To get more winning trades I research and select carefully which games to trade. In this instance I will be trading the draw. After 5 to 10 minutes of a game, after the draw odd have shortened a little, a lay trade is place. Now it’s time to sit back and wait for a goal. It’s better the favourite scores first. When the favourite scores the odds of a draw will lengthen significantly giving me the opportunity to back the draw later at higher odds. I have not guaranteed myself a profit.
That’s the perfect scenario and it’s what we aim for each time. The matches mentioned here have been researched and should produce a goal from the favourite first. If things don’t go to plan just employ your preferred risk management strategy. Personally, I trade out at break even at the earliest opportunity. More can can be found out of the very important topic of risk management on the site.
Which matches should be traded?
Crystal Palace v Man City Sunday 27th April
Man City are playing away but that should deter them from scoring a few goal against Palace. Palace conceded more goals than they score. Manchester City score on average two away goals per match. Palace conceded just over 1 goal per match at home. Man City also look favourable in terms of ball possession and corners won.
Advice – lay the draw and wait for goals. After the first goal trade out for a profit.
Arsenal v Newcast United Monday 28th April
65% of Arsenal games produce less than 3 goals and 65% of Newcastle’s matches produce more than 3 goals or more. Arsenal concede only 1 goal every two matches at home, whereas, Newcastle 3 goals every two matches played away. It looks a dead cert that Arsenal will score more goals in this match. If the favourite scores first, or ends up with more goals then, it means predictable profitable for trading the draw on Betfair.