Research has shown that goals decrease throughout the Premiership football season.  The study carried out over at BettingExpert.com about the number of goals scored throughout the season can useful for selecting Betfair trading techniques to suit the later part of the season.

The decrease in average goals scored per season was attributed to a fatigue factor among football players, or less likely that defenders improve during the season and block more shots.  It’s possible that defenders adapt themselves to the top strikers.

In the same article the author argues that football odds on Betfair are an inefficient market where odds tend to swing to an extreme for favourites and for over goal results.  The argument goes that average punters want to see goals, because they are exciting and produce the rush that football enthusiasts enjoy and TV publishers like.

As goals are enjoyed it is argued that average punters bet more on over goal results which artificially reduces the odds available.  This idea can be useful for trading over goals markets on Betfair.  If the odds are artificially low at the start of the game the over goal odds will increase if no goals are scored in the opening part of the match.

An interesting bit of data is that over the last three Premier League seasons the average number of goals scored is 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5.  Traders looking to trade Over Goal markets may want to choose the over 3.5 goal market on Betfair to reduce the risk that the match produces goals more quickly than expected.

Most games produce goals after 20 to 30 minutes on average.  A good Betfair over goal trading technique would involve placing a lay bet on the over 2.5 or 3.5 goal result during the first few seconds of the match.  Possibly after the first attacking run where the odds will decrease.  Watch the match and wait between 10 to 20 minutes for the odds to lengthen before greening up for a profit.

Here’s an example trade to illustrate this Betfair trading technique.  Two premiership games where traded using Racing Traders software.

Man City v Wolves 

Goals

1.1 Average for 2
2.4 Average against 1
17.6% Under 2.5 52.9%
82.4% Over 2.5 47.1%

 

Bet trading football

Over 2.5 goal odds on Betfair went as low as 1.5 during the first moments of the game.  After 15 minutes the odds increased as expected which would have produced  a profit.  In this example the trade was allowed to run too long, because Man City scored.  The trade went negative.  After approximately 10 minutes more the trade went slightly positive at, which time the trade was closed.

In fact the game ended 2 – 0, but it was good risk management to close the trade when the trade turned positive, to reduce potential losses should more goals go in.

Whilst trading Man City v Wolves and listening to the game on the radio it was apparent that the game between Liverpool and West Brom was proving to be quite boring.  Looking at the goal stats for the game it might have been selected as a good game to trade.  Here is the reason.  Most of Liverpool FC games produce less than 2.5 goals.  Although the average game for West Brom produces more than 2.5 goals, Liverpool has a defense that certainly is not average.  What happened was that the game was slow and produced few goals.

Liverpool vs West Brom

Goals

1.3 Average for 1.2
0.8 Average against 1.6
62.5% Under 2.5 41.2%
37.5% Over 2.5 58.8%

Bet trading Liverpool and Wolves

A lay bet was placed on the Over 2.5 goal market towards the end of the first half.  The game progressed with no goals.  As the image to the left shows the odds increased as expected producing a nice profit.  In fact the game was so boring the bet was left to run with there being no need to trade out.

Trading the Goal over markets is certainly a good trading technique to use, especially during the end of the season.  One word of warning is to trade out as quickly as possible to lock in  a profit.  More opportunities like this will arise where the technique can be repeated.

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