What an end to the Premiership and a great day for trading. Let’s talk more about the trading. Two games where selected for trading. Both games, after pre match analysis, where selected because the stats indicated that they would be good for the trading the draw Betfair strategy.
The games where, Man City vs QPR, and Sunderland vs Man United. Let’s review the games as they happened.
After 20 minutes Man United went 1 – 0 up away at Sunderland FC. Great. The favourite scores first and the draw odds swing upwards significantly. The trading strategy that we follow is to close the trade for a profit at the earliest opportunity to guarantee a profit. Man United went on to win the game but that doesn’t matter.
We also suggested trading the ‘over 2.5’ goal market. There were not many goals scored and the stats suggested that this would be the case. Laying the over 2.5 goal market and trading out later produced a nice profit in this game. The risk of this trade loosing money was reduced by trading a match that didn’t look like it would produce more than 2.5 goals. If the bet was left open and not traded it would still have produce a profit.
Man City scored in the 38th Minute. Longer than expected but never mind because the trade was profitable. In line with Betfair trading strategy the trade was closed for an profit at the earliest opportunity. QPR went on to make the score 1 – 1 later which would have reduced the odds. If the trade was still open it would have been negative at this stage. Psychologically this is not a nice situation because there is a chance the trade will loose money and the trade is left with the decision of whether to wait for another goal or trade out for a loss. Surprisingly QPR made it 1 – 2 in 66th minute which would have also made the trade difficult because the market would expect Man City to score another goal. The odds of the draw remained the same causing a slightly negative trade.
Man City vs QPR was also a great match for laying the ‘over 2.5 goal market’. The draw odds where so low that they where bound to increase significantly if no goals where scored. This trade produced a 10% return on stake value in just 10 minutes. Impressive stuff.