Follow up to the Premiership Betfair bet trading tips.  Both Man City vs Sunderland and QPR vs Arsenal where full of surprises.  Mario Balotelli was not playing to his full potential and manager, Roberto Mancini didn’t play Carlos Tevez because he wasn’t match fit.  Surprisingly Sunderland scored first.  Not such a good start.  What’s worse is that QPR also scored first 7 minutes before in the game with Arsenal.   A trader would want both Man City and Arsenal to score first for an easy profit, so again, not a good start.  All was not lost.  This post explains the traders options when it all goes wrong?

Man City Vs Sunderland

What happened?  The draw was laid during the first 10 minutes of the match.

Sunderland scored after 32 minutes.  The draw odds do not increase because the underdog has scored and the favourite is expected to score again.  In fact the odds will hover around the break even point and go negative every time the favourite looks like scoring.  The answer….

Bet trading decision tree.

Decision tree

Sunderland score after 32 minutes.  Initially the trade will go negative, because it is likely that the favourite will score next.  After a few minutes the loss will reduce.  An exit at half time gets to break even or a small loss.

On the day Man City scored in the 44th minute from a penalty.  If the trade is still open is will be in a big loss.  An exit now will be painful.  Here, some knowledge of the game is useful.  Do the favourites look like they will score again?  The game is still in the first half so let’s wait.

What happened next?

The underdogs score again just before half time.  Not expected but not necessarily a bad thing.  The draw odds increase and reduce the large losses.  No more waiting.  It’s time to exit.  Expect the odds to be at around break even.

The only situation where a big loss results is if the trade is open and the favourite scores again making it a draw at 2 – 2.