Everyone is trying to get an edge when they trade on Befair. Imagine that there are thousands of people all trading the same markets and using a slightly different method to get an edge. Trading the draw in football games in one technique in a kit bag of trading techniques allowing bet traders to profit from odds movements on Betfair. Recently, I (I call myself Trader) have been trading the draw on Betfair and researching how to get an edge over the market. To get an in depth explanation of swing trading football matches, some theory behind Bet Trading, and how to reduce losses check out the original post on trading the draw.
A thread on the racing traders forum caught my attention recently. A guy who called himself Boz had been practicing trading the draw and had been making some profitable trades. He asked for advice on what to do if the underdog scores first, an inconvenience for traders because you rarely get profits.
The forum is a great place to get different trading strategies and tips for Bet Trading. The only thing the forum lacks is detail of how to get an edge. This blog is all about explaining how to get an edge for bet trading. Here’s the best bits of the conversation.
Boz traded a game between Barcelona and Espanyol. Barcelona where the clear favourites but Espanyol scored first. The draw odds reduced because the market expected that Barcelona would score a goal to make the scoreline 1 – 1 making a draw more likely. Boz was annoyed because he was left with a red screen (a loss) if he hedged the trade.
The Traderrati of the forum made three suggestions,
- Use an insurance bet.
- Be a man (or women) and take a small loss.
- Dutch the market to save the loss.
- Use a slightly different strategy.
I agree with the second, third, and fourth solution. An insurance bet on a 0 – 0 scoreline or a 2 – 1 scoreline with the favourite leading was an idea, but, everyone thought that it would reduce profit margins too much. We agree.
Personally I believe the response from one of the most experienced members of the forum was the best. Just take a loss and get on with the next trade. Loosing is part of trading. The secret is to make more winning trades than loosing ones. It’s hardly a secret. The real secret is how to get an edge over everyone else.
During this conversation on Racing Traders forum another member joined in and said he thought the trading strategy is being used by too many people and that it does not provide an edge. He is wrong and inexperienced. Here’s why. It is not the basic strategy that provides an edge it’s the selection process for choosing the best matches and using skills to reduce losses effectively. Choosing the best matches increases the chances of making more winning trades. 🙂
Or you can dutch the market to get out of dodge (for non English readers that means reduce the loss or make a gain). This technique is taken from forum members who make their money dutching the correct score and win markets. A process of making various back and lay bets on different selections to produce an overall gain. Here’s the advice.
If the underdog scores first their win odds will shorten quickly and will probably overshoot the real liklihood that they will win. Traders can quickly place a lay bet on the underdog at these short odds. If the favourite scores, which they undoubtedly will, the odds will swing back in the opposite direction which will produce a green book. In other words the bet can be hedged for a profit. This profit will cancel the loss. If the underdogs score again then it’s time to throw your computer out the window because it’s gunna hurt. Get the match selection process right and this will be very unlikely.
After Boz said that he was going to experiment with trading 0 – 0 scorelines lots of members said that this is crazy. A back bet is placed on the 0 – 0 scoreline. If no goal is scored after 10 minutes the odds will drop by roughly 0.5 allowing a lay bet to be placed for a profit. Who’s not seen a match where a team doesn’t score early on and surprise everyone. It’s happens regularly. If a team scores the bet is lost and it all ends in a gamble. This is not the way to trade. A much better strategy would be to trade the 2.5 goals market.
Here is how to trade the 2.5 goals market. Place a back bet on the ‘under 2.5 goals’ market. The odds will drop if no goals are scored because an under 2.5 goal result is more likely. When the odds drop close the trade for a green screen (a profit). This is better because if a goal is scored the trade is not lost so quickly and is wasted only if there are more than 2 goals scored.
So it’s official, trading the draw still works but it ‘s all about getting an edge. Our final word on this is that it’s best to make things simple (for new traders especially), just take the loss and get on with the next trade. Aim for more winning trades than loosing trades. Or try laying the underdog if they score first (a dutching method). Even better use option 2 and 3. Take a small loss and then lay the Underdog for a profit (hopefully!). Alternatively use additional techniques like trading the 2.5 goals market.
More important than all of this is. Get an edge by choosing the right matches to trade. Subscribe to these post to get bet trading tips and advice (subscribe by clicking the buttons top right of the page). There will be tips for which games to trade and why.
Our recommended software is Bet Trader by Racing Traders. We recommend Bet Trader because it is free to use. A premium version is available to make it faster (which will be very useful later).