Trading the draw on (football) Betfair is a strategy that works if the games are selected carefully. Getting high confidence matches to trade is the most important factor. Readers that are new to trading on Betfair should read the first post we wrote about this Betfair trading technique. The post describes the technique in more detail and advises how to choose the best matches to trade. This post investigates teams who are good candidates for trading the draw.
Our ‘in house’ trader (aka The Professor) swears by using a stats based approach to getting the best matches. It might be boring but stats produce results. Presently there have not been enough Premiership matches played to give enough form for reliable stats. However, last season can be used as a good indicator to the 2012 / 13 season. We’ll stick with the top teams as last seasons data could be unreliable, viz, new transfers in and out can have a major impact on team performance.
Man City and Man United both have excellent home team records. In particular Man City won 100% of their home games last season. Trading the draw when Man City play at home to any Premiership ship team except Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool is a good strategy. Don’t go in blindly check the form stats first.
Chelsea’s matches produced ‘over 2.5 goal’ results in 90% of matches last season. A trend that will probably continue after the signing of Eden Hazard who looks to be forming excellent interplay with Fernando Torres and Juan Matta. Select home matches where Chelsea play teams with high average away goals conceded.
A word about the lower league teams. QPR had the worst away team record last season. Against the top 4 Aston Villa, Bolton, QPR, Swansea and West Brom had the worst records last season. We have left Swansea out of the selection below based on their surprising start to the season and top performing new signings.
In summary games which are good candidates for Betfair trading the draw are;
- Man City and Man United playing at home (check recent away team form).
- Chelsea at home when they play a team with high away goals conceded stats.
- QPR when the play Man United, Man City or Chelsea at home. And other suitable teams suggested by form stats.
- Aston Villa and West Brom when they play Man City,Man United, or Chelsea away.